Tag:NBA draft high school freshmen
Posted on: June 29, 2008 11:54 pm

Three freshmen, three strikes?

This follow up on a post I made with some of this content a few days ago.

In the wake of freshmen going 1-2-3 in the NBA draft, I thought I'd check up on a recent draft that's had time to give us some evidence of how wise it is for teams to crawl out on that limb.

Let's check the results from the 2005 drraft and see how that's paying off.

#1 Andrew Bogut, Center, Soph. has averaged 9, 12 and 14 points, hasn't yet hit double digits in rebounds, and doesn't really block a shot except by accident. Jouneyman stats, no doubt #1 pick salary. This was a waste of money.

#2 Marvin Williams, SF, Frosh. Averaged 8, 13, and almost 15 this past season. Only shoots 45%, but that's actually good by the NBA's 'current' standards. Gets a rebound if it sneaks up and bites him on the ass. You know, for #2 money, I'd want a 20 point scorer by the 3rd year of experience. Not a bust, but not a star, and #2 should get you a star.

#4 Chris Paul, PG, Soph. Averaged 16, 17, and 21. Assists are OK. I'd say this guy panned out.

#6 Martel Webster,  SG, High School. Averaged 4, 4, and 11.  Will take a rebound if someone carefully faces up to him and places the ball in both his hands with both of their hands. I guarantee this guy is overpaid, by a LOT.

#7 Charlie Villanueva, PF, Soph. Averaged 13, 12, and 12. Not starting. Rebounds probably OK for a bench warmer. If your first round pick is not starting in his 3rd year, you made a mistake on the player, or on your draft strategy if that spot on your roster is already that deep.

#10 Andrew Bynum, C, High School. Averaged 1, 8, and 13. Was doing OK this year until injured, but he got paid for nothing for two years. Why not wait and get him when he can actually body up in the NBA, and save millions and millions in salary? LOL

That's the freshmen and sophs from the top 10 in 2005. I'd say there are 1 1/2 potential stars there out of  6. 25% average. That's not a good result with top 10 salaries on the line, and your team's future at stake.

The High School ban was a step in the right direction, but not nearly enough. Notice that in three yards, the only player who worked out for sure so far at least played two college years. Even if others do pan out, three years of salary at the rates they got as top 10 picks make for expensive waiting rooms!


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